What might have been, Part I

With Barry Bonds about to pass Babe Ruth’s career home run record, home runs and records are getting a lot of talk. I’m a baseball enthusiast and all the stats and records appeal to the math geek in me. I recently heard an interesting tid bit that needs a little exploring: Willie Mays missed almost two full years of baseball due to military service.

Mays finished with 660 career home runs, which was 3rd all time until Barry passed him. Let’s look at Mays home runs by years early in his career, which is when he went into the military.

Willie Mays Home Runs

Averaging out HR per at-bat for Mays first few years works out to be, Mays hit a home run each 15.2 at-bats. Averaging out how many at-bats Mays had per year in full years he played is 546 at-bats.

So in 1952 he missed out on 419 at-bats and in 1953 he missed out on all 546 at-bats. Using one home run every 15.2 at bats works out to be 27 more home runs in 1952 and 36 home runs in 1953 which is an additional 63 home runs.

Babe Ruth finished with 714 career home runs; if Mays didn’t serve in the military it is very likely he would of had 63 more home runs, giving him a career total of 723 home runs.