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Barry Bonds is probably going to break the home run record in the next few months. Though I’m not sure why people are making such a big deal about it, the record is going to be about as short lived as McGwire’s single season record. A-Rod is clearly going to be breaking Barry’s record in a few years and a good chance Pujols can break A-Rod’s record a few years after that.

Here are some numbers:

Alex Rodriquez started this season with 464 home runs at age 31. He has averaged 41 home runs a year for each full year he’s played. If he does the same for the next 7 years, he will hit another 287 home runs, giving him 751 career home runs at age 38. Bonds at age 38 was just past 600 home runs, and still at his physical peak. If A-Rod can perform in his later years as well as Bonds then he could expect an additional 150 home runs which would put him around 900 career home runs. If he falls off in his later years, maybe Alex will only hit 800.

Albert Pujols is on the same pace as A-Rod. In Pujols first 6 seasons he has hit 250 home runs, averaging 41 home runs a year and he’s still only 27 years old. The 2006 season was his best to date hitting 49 home runs, so it appears he is getting warmed up, which will make him down right frightful when he gets to his prime in his early 30’s.

But remember, Bonds has walked a major leauge record 2,432 times, once every 4 at bats for his career. If his walk ratio was on par with A-Rod’s which is once every 8 at bats, Bonds would have an additional 1,200 at bats. Considering Bonds’ career ratio is a home run every 13 at bats, that would have given him an additional 92 home runs, making it a bit harder for Alex to catch him. But at A-Rod’s current pace he might just hit 92 home runs this year.