For the first time in recorded history, I won our Fantasy Football league. woo hoo! Oddly enough, I had horribly running backs this year, sorry Maroney you may go undefeated but you were a fantasy bust. None of my running backs were in the top 20 based on yardage. However, my receiving core was solid with two receivers in the top 20, one in the top 5. Was that the difference or just luck? Having Brady as my starting QB didn’t hurt, and that was luck.
I thought maybe I also did better since you play three receivers instead of two running backs. However, in previous years I’ve had good receivers and never did well. So what is different about this NFL season, did this year prefer receivers over running backs, or did backs under perform across the board. Let’s look at some numbers.
2007
| Running Back |
Yards |
| L.Tomlinson |
1,474 yds |
| A.Peterson |
1,341 yds |
| B.Westbrook |
1,333 yds |
| W.Parker |
1,316 yds |
| J.Lewis |
1,304 yds |
| Total |
6,768 yds |
|
| Receivers |
Yards |
| R.Wayne |
1,510 yds |
| R.Moss |
1,493 yds |
| C.Johnson |
1,440 yds |
| L.Fitzgerald |
1,409 yds |
| T.Owens |
1,355 yds |
| Total |
7,207 yds |
|
This is very different than seasons past, which the top yard carrier has been running backs. Last year even the 5th best running back had more yards than the top receiver
2006
| Running Back |
Yards |
| L.Tomlinson |
1,815 yds |
| L.Johnson |
1,789 yds |
| F.Gore |
1,695 yds |
| T.Barber |
1,662 yds |
| S.Jackson |
1,528 yds |
| Total |
8,492 yds |
|
| Receivers |
Yards |
| C.Johnson |
1,369 yds |
| M.Harrison |
1,366 yds |
| R.Williams |
1,310 yds |
| R.Wayne |
1,310 yds |
| D.Driver |
1,295 yds |
| Total |
6,650 yds |
|
The top 5 rushers had +1,842 yds more than the top 5 receivers, that is a significant change to this year. Now yards aren’t everything, running backs tend to score more touchdowns and they also get yards receiving. So looking at the fantasy points the last two years:
Fantasy Points for 2007
| Running Back |
Points |
| L.Tomlinson |
293 pts |
| B.Westbrook |
269 pts |
| J.Addai |
222 pts |
| A.Peterson |
222 pts |
| C.Portis |
210 pts |
|
| Receivers |
Yards |
| R.Moss |
280 pts |
| T.Owens |
218 pts |
| B.Edwards |
212 pts |
| R.Wayne |
198 pts |
| L.Fitzgerald |
188 pts |
|
The top tunning backs still outscored the top receivers in fantasy points, but compare those fantasy points to 2006:
Fantasy Points for 2006
| Running Back |
Points |
| L.Tomlinson |
410 pts |
| L.Johnson |
317 pts |
| S.Jackson |
314 pts |
| F.Gore |
249 pts |
| W.Parker |
246 pts |
|
| Receivers |
Yards |
| M.Harrison |
199 pts |
| T.Owens |
189 pts |
| R.Wayne |
181 pts |
| D.Driver |
173 pts |
| C.Johnson |
172 pts |
|
The receivers scored about the same points, but the running back points took a significant drop from the previous year. Randy Moss and Tomlinson record years being the anomalies.
Did NFL teams rely on the pass more this year than the run? Yes. As you can see in this chart of total NFL yardage, by passing and rushing for the past 7 years. Note: 2001 there was 1 less team in the league, so total yardage is down. It was only Houston so not down too much.
NFL Yardage Passing vs. Rushing 2001-2007The real question is, what will the NFL do next year and how should I pick my draft. I was hoping the chart would give an overall trend, but it doesn’t seem consistent enough. Oh well, I guess Brady and Moss as my first two picks next year wouldn’t be too bad.
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