I thought maybe I also did better since you play three receivers instead of two running backs. However, in previous years I’ve had good receivers and never did well. So what is different about this NFL season, did this year prefer receivers over running backs, or did backs under perform across the board. Let’s look at some numbers.

2007

This is very different than seasons past, which the top yard carrier has been running backs. Last year even the 5th best running back had more yards than the top receiver

2006

The top 5 rushers had +1,842 yds more than the top 5 receivers, that is a significant change to this year. Now yards aren’t everything, running backs tend to score more touchdowns and they also get yards receiving. So looking at the fantasy points the last two years:

Fantasy Points for 2007

The top tunning backs still outscored the top receivers in fantasy points, but compare those fantasy points to 2006:

Fantasy Points for 2006

The receivers scored about the same points, but the running back points took a significant drop from the previous year. Randy Moss and Tomlinson record years being the anomalies.

Did NFL teams rely on the pass more this year than the run? Yes. As you can see in this chart of total NFL yardage, by passing and rushing for the past 7 years. Note: 2001 there was 1 less team in the league, so total yardage is down. It was only Houston so not down too much.

NFL Yardage Passing vs. Rushing 2001-2007

The real question is, what will the NFL do next year and how should I pick my draft. I was hoping the chart would give an overall trend, but it doesn’t seem consistent enough. Oh well, I guess Brady and Moss as my first two picks next year wouldn’t be too bad.

Prediction for A-Rod’s next five seasons leading up to the record:

Here are some numbers:

Alex Rodriquez started this season with 464 home runs at age 31. He has averaged 41 home runs a year for each full year he’s played. If he does the same for the next 7 years, he will hit another 287 home runs, giving him 751 career home runs at age 38. Bonds at age 38 was just past 600 home runs, and still at his physical peak. If A-Rod can perform in his later years as well as Bonds then he could expect an additional 150 home runs which would put him around 900 career home runs. If he falls off in his later years, maybe Alex will only hit 800.

Albert Pujols is on the same pace as A-Rod. In Pujols first 6 seasons he has hit 250 home runs, averaging 41 home runs a year and he’s still only 27 years old. The 2006 season was his best to date hitting 49 home runs, so it appears he is getting warmed up, which will make him down right frightful when he gets to his prime in his early 30’s.

But remember, Bonds has walked a major leauge record 2,432 times, once every 4 at bats for his career. If his walk ratio was on par with A-Rod’s which is once every 8 at bats, Bonds would have an additional 1,200 at bats. Considering Bonds’ career ratio is a home run every 13 at bats, that would have given him an additional 92 home runs, making it a bit harder for Alex to catch him. But at A-Rod’s current pace he might just hit 92 home runs this year.

Or if you’re a Giants fan and want daily game updates at the end of each game, you can text “gogiants” to 66937 and I’ll send you a message after every game. What the MLB charges you, I give you it for free. Plus I’ll cram as much wit and info in 160 characters as possible.

More info at BondsWatch and GoGiants on Mozes.

The straight odds calculations is relatively easy, for each 64 games you must pick the right outcome out of the 2 possible outcomes (win or loss). So our Statisitics 101 class tells us that is two to the power of 64 (2^{^64}) different possible combinations. Only one those will be the perfect bracket.

You have 1 in 18 quintillion chance to pick a perfect bracket

Oh and if you didn’t calculate that, 2^{^64} = 1.8 x 10¹⁹ or more precisely  18,446,744,073,709,551,616. This means you have a 1 in 18 quintillion chance of picking the perfect bracket. You have a better chance of winning the lottery two days in a row then picking the perfect bracket.^[1]

However, I don’t buy the straight odds calculation. There has never been a #1 seed beat by a #16 seed, which is 4 games that are practically gimmies. The lowest seed to win the championship is an #8 seed, the lowest seed to make it to the final four is a #11 seed, to the elite eight #12 seed and sweet sixteen is a #14 seed.^[2]

So it is relatively obvious that the rankings do give a distinct advantage to be able to pick a perfect bracket.

Here’s how I’m going to divide up the odds for the top seed to win a game in the first round:
#1 vs. #16 = 0.95
#2 vs. #15 = 0.80
#3 vs. #14 = 0.75
#4 vs. #13 = 0.70
#5 vs. #12 = 0.65
#6 vs. #11 = 0.60
#7 vs. #10 = 0.55
#8 vs. #9 = 0.50

Multiplying each of these gives us a 4% chance to pick a perfect round 1 for a regional bracket. There are four regionals so that would be 2.56 x 10^{^-6} (1 in 390,625 to pick a perfect round 1)

The second round is not quite as easy to give odds to, the #1 seeds would still have a distinct advantage over a #8 or #9, but the odds would be tough for say a #3 vs. #6. Let’s say the favored team for round 2 has a 55% chance of winning. For the 16 round 2 games this would be 0.55^{^16} = 7.0 x 10^-5

Let’s say for the remaining rounds the odds are even, though they wouldn’t be but I want the calculation to be relatively conservative. So the remaining 15 games, actually 16 including the play-in game gives the odds as 0.50^{^16} = 1.5 x 10^-5

Combining all the rounds gives us a total odds of 2.69 x 10^-15 which is a 1 in 371 trillion chance, quite a bit easier than the straight odds but still a really really long shot.

So good luck with your picks, don’t feel bad if you miss a couple. :)

Tags: stats, odds, sports

Could you imagine having instant replay in baseball? Or even worse the automated pitch detector to call balls and strikes, after a close pitch no one would get upset, there would be no “COME ON BLUE! Get your eyes checked!!”, it would be another case of shrugging and saying well that’s what the computer says. Which reminds me of a recent customer service call to United but I’ll save that for another day.

Google – the great organizer and provider of the world’s information is similar in many regard to instant replay. It seems whenever I find myself in a lively discussion with a group, someone, myself included, will always want to look up the “correct answer” on Google. This usually ends up killing the discussion.

B.C.S. – each bowl season everyone always seems to get up in arms about why we must have a college football playoffs. How can we possibly know who the National Champion is? The BCS tried to implement a national championship game against the top two teams, which isn’t enough. How do we know they really are the top two teams, we must have playoffs.

My thought on this is to get rid of the whole BCS and championship game format. It obviously can’t decide it anyways. Even if you have an eight team playoffs, the ninth team will feel slighted. Let the bowls go to how they were, which was good for 50+ years. And let people have lively debates on why Boise State should be the national champion or why USC is overrated.

Having a computer decide the answers to everything is just boring. The debate and differing view points and people being passionate now that’s interesting. Who cares if there is no right or wrong, I like the fuzziness.

In recent times, when people were actually playing fantasy football:

• Jerry Rice (WR San Francisco 49ers) – Oct 14, 1990 vs. Atlanta – 41 pts
  5 receiving TDs, 225 yds
• Clinton Portis (RB Denver Broncos) – Dec 7, 2003 vs. Kansas City – 41 pts
  5 rushing TDs, 218 yds rushing, 33 yds receiving
• Shaun Alexander (RB Seatle Seahawks) – Sept 30, 2002 vs. Minnesota – 40 pts
  5 rushing TDs, 139 yds rushing, 92 yds receiving
• Peyton Manning (QB Indianapolis Colts) – Nov 25, 2004 vs. Detroit Lions – 40 pts
  6 passing TDs, 236 yds passing

Prior to fantasy foootball, plus multi-talented players:

• Gale Sayers (RB Chicago Bears) – Dec 12, 1965 vs. San Francisco – 45 pts
  5 rushing TDs, 1 receiving TD, 1 punt return TD, 113 rushing yds, 89 receiving yds
• Dub Jones (RB Cleveland Browns) – Nov 25, 1951 vs. Chicago Bears – Minimum 43 pts
  4 rushing TDs, 2 receiving TDs. I couldn’t find total yards but he had the following yards just from his touchdowns: 83 yds rushing, 77yds
• Cookie Gilchrist (RB Buffalo Bills) – Dec 8, 1963 vs. NY Jets – 42 pts
  5 rushing TDs, 243 rushing yds

And probably the greatest fantasy day in NFL history is incomplete. Ernie Nevers (RB, K – Chicago Cardinals) on Nov 28th, 1929 vs. Chicago Bears rushed for 6 TDs and kicked 4 extra points. (He missed two) Unfortunately, I can not find how many yards he rushed for so I can’t complete his score. Minimum 40 pts

Sign up now for a free San Francisco Giants SMS alert. This is a short daily text message after each game with the score and a brief highlight. This comes straight from me to you, so may be full of biased info it is definitely unofficial.

I’ll keep it short and usually only one text a day after the game. Additional text will be only for breaking news items such as a big trade like Benitez for Mariano Rivera or if any players happen to get indicted.

You will receive a text message which you need to reply ‘Y’ to confirm your subscription. You can unsubscribe anytime, by texting quit to 66937.

With Barry Bonds about to pass Babe Ruth’s career home run record,
home runs and records are getting a lot of talk. I’m a baseball
enthusiast and all the stats and records appeal to the math geek
in me. I recently heard an interesting tid bit that needs a little
exploring: Willie Mays missed almost two full years of baseball due
to military service.

Mays finished with 660 career home runs, which was 3rd all time
until Barry past him. Let’s look at Mays home runs by years
early in his career, which is when he went into the military.

Willie Mays Home Runs

Averaging out HR per at-bat for Mays first few years
works out to be, Mays hit a home run each 15.2 at-bats.
Averaging out how many at-bats Mays had per year in full
years he played is 546 at-bats.

So in 1952 he missed out on 419 at-bats and in 1953
he missed out on all 546 at-bats. Using one home run every
15.2 at bats works out to be 27 more home runs in 1952 and
36 home runs in 1953 which is an additional 63 home runs.

Babe Ruth finished with 714 career home runs; if Mays didn’t
serve in the military it is very likely he would of had 63 more
home runs, giving him a career total of 723 home runs.